AARE 2025: New Connections and Directions for Educational Research
Individual Paper abstract titled Co-constructing preferred scenarios for the future of teaching: What if… we used the future to change the present in education?, for the 2025 AARE Conference - New Connections and Directions for Educational Research - has been accepted without revision.
ABSTRACT: Co-constructing preferred scenarios for the future of teaching: What if… we used the future to change the present in education?
How can futures approaches, including strategic foresight, support systems transformation? How can futures methodologies be applied across education systems? Multi-stakeholder methodologies provide insights that can produce robust novel ideas or ways to reframe present practice, policy making and interdisciplinary research.
The history of schooling can be an anchor that limits possibilities for transforming education systems into practice. At the same time, the world is rapidly changing when divisions across societies seem to be widening. How can we anticipate the future of the teaching profession? How can we create preferred futures that value current professionals and inspire future teachers to join the profession?
This paper will share a theoretical framework that allows stakeholders within education systems to construct a shared vision on what the teaching profession/ schooling could look like in the future. This includes utilising a set of research-informed “ambition loops” that identify next practice actions for different stakeholder groups. The framework is applied using an adapted argumentative Delphi process and a multi-stakeholder process to create a set of preferred scenarios for the future of teaching across an educational system. A set of evidence-informed teacher personas, developed for each system, is used to test and further develop the scenarios that have been co-constructed.
Key findings include 15 preferred scenarios for the future of teaching that were co-constructed by a diverse range of educational partners across three educational systems. Based on applying the concept of “policy ambidexterity”, ideas for long term transformation are separated from ways to build on current strengths or make shorter term improvements. Separating different levels of change can ameliorate a paradox whereby teachers may be feeling change fatigued at the same time as current policy settings are not adequately responding to current and future challenges. Longer term transformations also provide opportunities to consider additional changes strategies for implementation beyond those used for short term changes.
Findings from a cross-country (case) analysis are also shared.
Multi-stakeholder, participatory approaches can connect research, practice and policy to respond to a rapidly changing world. How can we build “next practice” in schooling that includes novel ideas and reshaping current practices to meet future needs? What are the strengths and limitations of futures approaches in education, including the implications and challenges for policy making that traditionally follows a linear path forward.
The paper will focus on my PhD studies, “What if compulsory schooling was a 21st century invention? A Counterfactual Study of Future Schooling” and work on the OECD project New Professionalism and the Future of Teaching | OECD
